THE JOY IS IN THE DETAILS – AT 8:29 A.M. ET:  I've been a bit uneasy about the generic numbers numbers for Congress recently, as several polls showed a tightening of the gap between Republicans and Dems.  But a new analysis by Real Clear Politics eases our burden:

McClatchy/Marist polled registered voters, and found Republicans leading by two points, 47 percent to 45 percent. Of course, this is of registered voters, not likely voters, and so the actual spread among the electorate is probably a few points more in the Republicans’ favor. A more ominous sign for the Democrats is the fact that Republicans lead 61 percent to 34 percent among those who describe themselves as “very enthusiastic” about voting. Also ominous – the Republicans’ lead seems to be fairly evenly spread between the regions: -2 in the Northeast, +4 in the Midwest, +4 in the South, and +3 in the West.

COMMENT:  If Republicans do very well in November, it will be because of the enthusiasm gap.  In 2008, with Obama leading the ticket, the Dems clearly had the enthusiasm going away.  Times have changed. 

But enthusiasm is temporary.  We still have more than a month to go before the election.  Republicans can get tired and Dems can get energized by the fear campaign being waged by Democratic leaders.  So the GOP must be out there every day, stirring up the troops and getting them to the polls.

September 23, 2010